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REACT !

Discussion in 'EMIGRARE' started by negrutxa, Oct 25, 2007.

  1. crismarten

    crismarten New Member

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  2. kitten

    kitten New Member

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    Re:REACT !

    DST, that's the most recent survey reported on the website. Have a look:

    http://www.mts.gov.ro/informatii/Studii ... et%C4%83ri

    Maybe the newspaper got some leaked data from a new one that hasn't been published yet?

    What's really interesting is that in 2007 10% of 3072 people said they might move to England (UK?), and in 2008 the percentage stayed the same - with 1205 people!
     
  3. kitten

    kitten New Member

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    Re:REACT !

    crismarten a scris:
    Seems to be this one. Well done, Crismarten!

    Oh, how I love figures like those on pages 29-31! 2000 people participate, 16% declare they intend to move abroad, and of those 16% think they might move to England. And the result is over two million!
     
  4. dst

    dst Member

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    Re:REACT !

    crismarten a scris:
    Okay it is pp29-32 that are relevant here.

    The key paragraph is probably this:

    Concluzie
    Aprox. a saptea parte (16%) din populatia adulta a Romaniei intentioneaza sa plece din Romania pentru a se stabili in alta tara,din care 4%
    sunt foarte hotarati. Acestia reprezinta aprox. 2,4 milioane de romani care prezinta potential de emigrare -un numar egal cu cei aprox. 2 mil.
    romani care au parasit deja Romania in ultimii 10 ani, de la ultimul recensamant (2002).

    Dintre cei 2,4 mil. romani care ar dori sa plece din tara, aproape jumatate (1 milion) sunt tineri intre 18 si 34 de ani. Dintreacesti 2,4 mil. romani
    care ar dori sa plece din tara, aprox. 600 mii sunt f. hotarati (“Cu siguranta DA”). Dintre acesti 600 de mii de romani hotarati sa plece, 250 mii sunt
    tineri intre 18-34 ani.


    Cu ce sunt diferiti tinerii fata de restul populatiei?
    Tinerii sunt mult mai tentati decat restul populatiei sa paraseasca Romania spre a se stabili in alta tara.
    Mai mult de o treime (37%) din tineri spun ca e posibil sa se mute definitiv in alta tara.
    Si mai semnificativ este nivelul mare, de aproape o zecime (8%), al tinerilor care raspund "Cu siguranta DA“
    In comparatie, din restul populatiei doar 7% intentioneaza sa plece, definitiv, din care doar 2% "Cu siguranta DA"


    Could someone translate this please?
     
  5. crismarten

    crismarten New Member

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    Re:REACT !

    dst a scris:

    Ok..my rushed version..

    Conclusion:
    Aprox 16%(7th part) of Romania's adult population intends to relocate abroad.
    About 37% (out of which 4% are really determined), declare that's a real posibility to move in a different country.
    37% represents aprox 2.4 mil romanian citizens future potential immigrants which is about the same number(aprox 2mil) of Romanians which have already migrated since last census(2002)

    Out of 2.4mil, almost half(aprox.1 mil) are youth aged inbetween 18 to 34.
    600 000 out of 2.4 mil declared that are very determined(answering definately "Yes").Out of these "very determined to leave" Romanians about quarter milion are aged 18 to 34.

    Why are youths so different comparing to rest?
    Youths are more tempted to leave for another country comparing to the rest of population, with 37% of them stating that it's a real posibility to permanently move abroad.Even more significant is the fact that 8% of them said "definately yes" to a permanent relocation.
    Out of the remaining population only 7% sees moving abroad as real posibility with 2% declaring "definately yes" to a permanent move.
     
  6. kitten

    kitten New Member

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    Re:REACT !

    (I could've sworn we're all working on it...)

    Conclusion

    Approximately one seventh (16%) of the adult population of Romania intend to leave Romania to live in a different country, of which 4% are very determined. These represent approximately 2.4 million Romanians with emigration potential – the number being equal to those about 2 million who have already left Romania in the last 10 years, since the last census (2002).

    Of the 2.4 million Romanians who would like to leave the country, nearly half (1 million) are youth aged 18-34. Of these 2.4 million Romanians who would like to leave the country, approximately 600.000 are very determined (‘Definitely YES’). Of these 600.000 Romanians determined to leave, 250.000 are aged between 18 and 34.

    How are young people different from the rest of the population?

    Compared to the rest of the population, the young are more inclined to leave Romania in order to settle abroad. More than one third (37%) of the young declare that they might move to another country for good. What is even more significant is the high number – almost one tenth (8%) – of young people who answered ‘Definitely YES’. By comparison, only 7% of the rest of the population intend to leave for good, and of these only 2% answered ‘Definitely YES’.
     
  7. dst

    dst Member

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    Re:REACT !

    Thank you crismarten, thank you kitten for your efforts.

    So, my understanding then is that the survey here is referring to some other work about intentions of Romanians generally. The survey itself was only conducted amongst 2004 people in the 18-34 age range so it seems to me that it can only make credible claims for this surveyed group not the wider population,

    Is there anything in the survey in which people rank their preference of country to emigrate to? If I understand the table correctly it only lists the first choice destinations of people UK (21%), Spain (16%) Italy (11%)

    Again the survey refers to broader data about what the population as a whole might do and contrasts this with young people.

    What is the source of these broader claims?

    Having read the survey do you think this is a legitimate summary of it (these are not my words):

    "The [Youth and their Concerns] survey found that 2.4 million Romanians intended to leave the country. Twenty one percent of them named the UK as their destination of choice which amounts to 504.000 as stated in the article. Of the remainder most placed the UK high on their list of preference. Given that and that survey was of 2.4 million it is legitimate to use the figure of 2 million in the headline"
     
  8. glissando

    glissando New Member

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    Re:REACT !

    Hello!

    I saw this story a while ago and wrote about it on my blog here http://yaltaparadox.blogspot.com/2009/0 ... erate.html (apologies for self-promo, admins please slap my wrist if I wasn't supposed to put this link here). The headline is not accurate although the figures in the story seem to be. There weren't 2 million people saying they want to come here, there were just half a million according to that survey. Anyway I see that now the story is no longer on the Daily Express website. So ReAct is working!
     
  9. kitten

    kitten New Member

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    Re:REACT !

    They're not at all transparent about their methodology. Their declared target is 'adult population' (page 2), and as far as I can see the only data that refer to age distribution is on page 24: 'Do you consider yourself young?' 35% said 'no', 65 % said 'yes'. My understanding is that this is the basis for their comparison between young people and the rest of the population. They define 'young' as being aged 18-35, but I can't find any place where they stated exactly how many people in their sample did actually fall into that category. (Maybe because I'm in a hurry. Has anybody found anything?)

    That's definitely the case, DST! What I think they did is they estimated the total number of potential migrants from the percentage they had for this small sample. They're saying the sample is representative for the entire population but they're not giving any evidence for this.

    There's no ranking. They're saying they've used open questions, so I imagine it was something like: 'If you were to leave Romania, which other country do you think you might choose?' and they answered something like 'I don't know... UK, Spain, Germany... I don't know'. So they added one to each of their UK, Spain and Germany tallies. (And how do I know these people are not mentioning some countries they've heard in the news, rather than their well thought-out intentions?!)

    I must read it carefully when I've got more time, but my impression is there's no evidence in it for the claims.
     
  10. glissando

    glissando New Member

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    Re:REACT !

    About this survey, the point is, it was an official survey published by the Romanian ministry. It isn't the journalist's job to check how professionally it was done or what sort of questions they asked. If they quoted the correct figures in the story and identified the ministry as their source, then their job as journalists was done. My problem with the story was the misleading headline. They deleted the story from their website, otherwise I'd go and check again whether they used the correct figures. But when I read it, a few weeks ago, I checked against the figures in the survey and everything seemed fine…
     
  11. dst

    dst Member

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    Re:REACT !

    Thanks Kitten, and thanks for your comments too glissando.

    Is the survey actually called 'youth and their concerns"? I am assuming that if it is about this, it would be a survey of young people and so the 2004 people in the sample are of the 18-34 age group that they single out through out it.

    It would also be possible to do a general survey with the intention of contrasting the youth sample with the general sample in order to identify different concerns.

    Going back to the headline, if 2.4m (general population) were intending to leave Rom only 16% overall saw the UK as a preferred destination (but 21% of the 18-34 age group) so we can confidently take issue with the 'heading for the uk: 2m Romanians' aspect.

    16% is also less than 400000 people so the 500000 claim in the article is also exaggerated

    There is a lot of mixing and matching going on in the way the article uses statistics so it is misleading, if maybe not as over the top as it appeared at first.
     
  12. silverfern

    silverfern New Member

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    Re:REACT !

    Dst, the 2004 people are "adult population", so over 18 yo but without an upper limit. At least that's what it says on page 2.
    I believe they wanted to compare the answers of youth population(18-34) with the answers of adult population over 34. Indeed the title is about youth, but the survey is about youth compared to adults over 34. Then, in page 25 it says that only 35% are between 18 and 34(doesn't say if 35% of adult population, or 35% of all population, or if they are institutionalized(is that an english word?) or not)
    And let's not forget that from those only 4% are sure about living permanently in other country.

    Well I hope I got it right, because this survey is confusing even for someone who speak Romanian.
     
  13. kitten

    kitten New Member

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    Re:REACT !

    I agree that the problems have originated in the survey report. But Daily Express wasn’t innocent either.

    Yes, the report is titled ‘Tinerii si preocuparile lor’ (~Youth and their concerns), but the declared targeted population is ‘Populatia adulta neinsitutionalizata a Romaniei’ (~Noninstitutionalised adult population of Romania). They don’t define their age brackets at all and they don’t state how many of their participants are actually young, though they do vaguely say that ‘of the 2.4 million Romanians who would like to leave the country, almost half (1 million) are aged between 18 and 34’.

    Then there’s the problem of statistic significance… I’m not impressed with their 95% confidence interval on the basis of a 2002 census (not only because they mention that since 2002 two million people left Romania!), neither with their cluster and purposeful sampling (rather than random, resulting in decreased validity).

    Maybe they collected age demographics and didn’t report them, but as it is it appears that the youth/ rest of the population divide is based on whether or not participants ‘considered themselves young’. As we’ve seen, 65% did. And then, on page 25, report authors say: ‘Two thirds of the population of Romania consider themselves young. However, only 35% of Romanians are aged between 18 and 34.’ (And later on p. 28 they conclude that people generally consider themselves young if they are below 50.) Doesn’t this undermine whatever statistical significance they might have had in the first place?

    It’s true that the report is misleading but it does make a clear distinction between young people and the rest of the population (whatever the terms might mean to them). However, Daily Express took the aggregated figures and reported them for young people only (in the article, not the headline). As we know, they also chose to interpret the answer to the question ‘Do you think you’ll leave Romania in the next few years to settle in a different country?’ (‘probably’ - 16%, ‘definitely’ - 4%) as those desperate Romanians already fleeing their poverty-stricken country, heading for the UK, although only 16% of those who said they might leave the country stated the UK as a preferred destination. (But this is again muddled as to the young/ rest difference.)

    I’m not going into the fact that 72% of the participants said they’re ‘definitely not’ and 10% ‘probably not’ going to leave the country in the next few years. I guess it’s the jurnalists' prerogative to ignore such general tendencies and concentrate on what seems to serve their purpose better at the time.
     
  14. dst

    dst Member

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    Re:REACT !

    I have responded now to the points made by the Daily Express - the normal process of a PCC complaint. I will keep you updated.
     
  15. rebecca_uk

    rebecca_uk Active Member

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    Re:REACT !

    Thank you again, DST.
    one question, though: what does PCC stand for?

    Multumesc, DSt
    O intrebare, totusi: ce inseamna PCC?
     
  16. dst

    dst Member

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    Re:REACT !

    Press Complaints Commission
     
  17. rebecca_uk

    rebecca_uk Active Member

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    Re:REACT !

    Thanks. In the meantime I have found out from Negrutxa.

    Additional explanation: PCC-an independent body that deals with complaints from the audience.


    Multumesc. Intre timp am aflat de la Negrutxa.

    Explicatie suplimentara: PCC-organizatie independenta care se ocupa cu plangerile venite din partea publicului/cititorilor.
     
  18. dst

    dst Member

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    Re:REACT !

    I need some help finding some further statistics.

    The common estimate is that 2-2.5m Romanians are currently living/working outside the country. I think this figure is the number provided by ANOFM or another Romanian government department dealing with labour issues.

    What I need is to find an official source for this estimate and also something that predicts where these immigrants have gone. I know the majority, probably over 1.5m have gone to Italy and Spain, but I would like to be able to provide a credible source for this.

    This information is needed in order to resolve the complaint against the Daily Express.
     
  19. negrutxa

    negrutxa New Member

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    Re:REACT !

    Hi DST

    Unfortunately, i did not find an official source to confirm the number of Romanians working/living/studying abroad. What I did found, were a couple of newspaper articles stating that a quarter of the active population (just above 10 millions estimated) works/lives abroad which rounds it up to approx 3 millions. Sounds about right, I would say, from my point of view.
     
  20. georgiv

    georgiv New Member

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